I’ve been an independent investor and trader for about 7 years now, and it doesn’t take a genius to understand that Bitcoin is in what is called, a speculative bubble. Now, when that bubble will burst is unclear, and how high Bitcoin could go, also unclear. Bitcoin could go up another$15,000, or $30,000 before it bursts. The fact of the matter is, this crypto currency has risen faster than anything…all based on speculation. Bitcoin is not an investment, it is gambling. By all means, buy Bitcoin now at all time highs, but do so with the understanding that your money is gone.
What is an Investment? What is a Bubble?
Bitcoin is actually inferior to precious metals because precious metals, like gold and silver beat Bitcoin in almost all measures of what money is: A medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. These are the three purposes of money. Now, I am in no ways defending fiat currency. However, we are not comparing Bitcoin to a currency (fiat) that survives on threats of overseas violence and can be endlessly printed by private central banks. However, when compared to physical, tangible assets like gold as a hedge against volatility and societal collapse/uncertainty, Bitcoin would serve as an inferior product. Precious metals do everything that Bitcoin does, and quite frankly, they can do things that Bitcoin can never do. So what do crypto currencies bring to the table then? Honestly, not much.
This thing has .Com and the Tulip bubble written all over it. Bitcoin and crypto’s are definitely here to stay, don’t get me wrong. However, people did this back in the 90’s with online retail, were fucking stupid, and lost all their money. “Oh OMG online retail…online retail is the future! Omg Buy, buy, buy.” And by all means, “invest” your money in Bitcoin…if you’d like to lose all of it.
Now, if you already have Bitcoin, you should probably sell at least some of it. Buy low, sell high. You don’t buy things that are at all time highs, you sell into that volume. That’s how you make money. The way you make money is to get in when nobody else is looking, when nobody else knows about that investment or is aware (it is under the radar). Then, when it becomes popular (and the masses flood in) THAT is when you SELL! You are not the winner when you pay full price for the prom queen AFTER the whole football team has run the Bukkake pile-driver on her.
There is zero reason (other than mania and speculation) why Bitcoin should be worth more than gold when it only serves one purpose. You are taking a product, which at best, is comparable and valuing it above the superior product. That’s like saying a 30+ year old Western woman, who has had more meat in her than a Schneiders factory, and valuing her above let’s say a young, tight, early twenty-something:
A nice pretty tulip in bloom vs. punched lasagna.
How to Tell When Something is Overvalued
Instead of getting all technical with financial language and investment garble, I will use an appropriate and easily understandable analogy, in order to understand when something is overpriced, over-valued, and a risk-on investment(more downside risk than upside).
For example, most women in the West by age 30+ have had more miles of Mike in them than what could be considered, magic. Not just Mike, but they’ve also been dug-out by Chad, Nick, and Tyrone all through their prime years; ridden the cock-carousel until the gears started to grind, and the music fading. Now, at age 30+ they want to settle and get married. They want some dupe to pay full-price for a product that has been used and abused for so many years. Just like a car that has no tread on the tires, is leaking, and has many miles on the odometer. Would you pay full price? Let me put it another way.
You are at a fancy restaurant and you’ve ordered the lasagna that is supposed to be top-banana. Your waiter then brings it out and lifts up the cloche. And there it is: A punched lasagna. Your waiter immediately puts the bill beside your lasagna; which looks like it has been punched, repeatedly, by somebody’s dick. The bill states that the meal is worth $80.00 USD but given that someone—maybe Tyrone, Chad, Nick, Daquan or Brad—has punched that lasagna into something that now looks like mincemeat, now puts the value of that dish significantly lower than the asking price. Literally, a retard could look at that lasagna and say, “I am not paying full price for that shit!”
And that my friend is what Bitcoin is right now. It is punched lasagna. And all it takes for a bubble to burst is for even the biggest retard in class, the last retard to buy at the top, to then doubt the value of said product. That is when you get the massive sell-off—when even the biggest douche doubts the value.